At a panel discussion dealing with the challenges faced by the U.S. Virgin Islands titled “Trump 2.0: Impacts and Strategies” hosted by the League of Women Voters of the Virgin Islands held recently at the University of the Virgin Islands (UVI) Innovation Center on St. Thomas, Governor Albert Bryan Jr. stated in no uncertain terms that “I always look for the opportunity.”
Flanked by Crucian business leader Jed JohnHope and UVI Economics Professor Dr. Mark Wenner of St. Thomas, the timely and provocative panel discussion attempted to tackle the all-important question facing the Territory today: How should the USVI respond to Donald J. Trump’s return to the White House and deal with the Republican stronghold in Washington?
“I promise I’m not a Republican,” Governor Bryan quipped. “While there are a lot of things that are frightful and that we should pay attention to…when we went to the White House and had the opportunity to sit down with many of his cabinet members as well as listen to the President firsthand, there are a lot of things that are skewered because the news media wants them to be that way. We see many opportunities exist under the current Trump Administration.”
The Governor sees a real second-chance opportunity at jumpstarting the long-dormant USVI economic engine, the St. Croix Refinery, under the Trump Administration’s pro-energy stance. Whereas, under the Biden Administration, there were nothing but roadblocks presented by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) that shut the Refinery down under an uncontested emergency order issued in May 2021, which saw the environmental risks too significant to continue operations. Such a drastic action did not consider the economic loss that has plagued the USVI for the years following.
Dr. Wenner agreed that the Refinery will likely come back online, but that “the problem is we can’t monitor it. For example, there are no air pollution specialists at DPNR, and with a retrenchment of the federal EPA, who will monitor the safe operation of this facility?” Dr. Wenner asked. He went on to warn that such non-compliance, without environmental oversight, risks repeating past disasters.
“I certainly adhere to what Mr. Wenner is saying regarding the safety around the Refinery,” the Governor said. “But I was visited last week by Mike Martucci of the EPA (the new Region 2 Administrator), and the one thing he said to us is, ‘I am going to do everything I can do within the letter of the law to ensure that you get your Refinery back.’ That statement was very important to him and to me, because the law is the law,” Governor Bryan emphasized.
“What we were dealing with in the Biden Administration was total unreasonableness,” he elaborated. “When you have the EPA Administrator telling you that he doesn’t care about your economy, that it is of no concern, I think that’s a blatant disregard for the people. I mean, you have to figure out a way where the people and these corporations can operate in a safe environment, and I think that’s what we are working on now with the Trump Administration.”
Businessman and strategist Jed JohnHope believed the panel was not only about energy but also about seizing a broader economic opportunity—if the Territory proves to be bold enough to act in that direction.
In a presentation titled “Flipping the Johnnycake” Mr. JohnHope called for a shift from reliance on government employment and federal aid toward a more diversified and resilient economic base.
“Public funds alone cannot fund our future,” he stated. “We must strengthen our economic base, diversify revenue streams, and aggressively attract private capital.”
Mr. JohnHope laid out a multi-pronged strategy for navigating the Trump era and beyond:
- Invest in Infrastructure: Roads, ports, and broadband must become enablers of industry, not bottlenecks.
- Support Local Production: The USVI can reduce import dependency by producing construction materials, solar components, and modular housing.
- Scale Workforce Training: A trained, credentialed workforce is essential for manufacturing, marine, and tech industries.
- Revive Strategic Incentives: Mr. JohnHope urged lobbying for a return of Section 936, the federal tax provision that once turned Puerto Rico into a pharmaceutical powerhouse.
- Embrace Niche Manufacturing: The Territory should target high-value, low-weight sectors – like medical devices, watches, and renewable energy parts – that suit the island’s limited logistics footprint.
Dr. Wenner and Mr. JohnHope highlighted significant risks from President Trump’s emerging policies, particularly tariffs. The USVI is highly exposed with 95-97% of goods imported. New tariffs on steel, aluminum, and car parts will increase construction costs and daily living expenses.
Dr. Wenner added that a proposed $1.5 million levy on Chinese-made ships calling at U.S. ports could be catastrophic for Caribbean shipping lines like Tropical and Crowley, which rely heavily on Chinese-built vessels.
Mr. JohnHope also spoke to the risks of the Territory’s billion-dollar tourism sector. “As inflation rises and disposable income tightens on the mainland, demand for leisure travel could soften.” He suggested that the Territory should prepare by subsidizing airline routes, and reopening key attractions like Mahogany Run Golf Course, and expanding hotel capacity.
Mr. JohnHope also argued that the USVI should borrow from Puerto Rico’s former playbook but avoid its mistakes. Tax incentives like Section 936 created booming industries in Puerto Rico in the 1980s and 1990s, but when those incentives were phased out, the economy collapsed.
“Puerto Rico taught us that tax incentives can drive industrialization – but unless paired with long-term investment, workforce development, and strong local supply chains, they can vanish as quickly as they came,” stated Mr. JohnHope.
He proposed that the USVI adopt a more disciplined, diversified approach that includes regional alliances, diaspora investment, and a laser focus on business retention.
Despite concerns about President Trump’s environmental deregulation, social service cuts, and shifting federal-territorial relationships, all panelists agreed that the USVI must act deliberately and decisively.
Governor Bryan stated that he welcomed funds from the U.S. Department of Education (DOE) going directly to the States and territories.
“I am behind president Trump 100% on his dismantling of the Education Department… It’s terrible. Amen to destroying it. The way they are looking at it now is that they will be giving us the funding directly instead of going through all the bureaucratic red tape.”
Dr. Wenner cautioned about the dismantling of the DOE.
“At least in the interim transition, there could be a lot of uncertainty as to how the Department of Education will be able to continue programs that are essentially heavily supported by the federal government. The same goes true for FEMA, which the Trump Administration is beginning to dismantle,” he went on. “We need to be concerned about a kind of cumulative effect of all these policy changes, uncertainty, and reductions in funding in the sense that we are an extremely vulnerable society.”
In conclusion, Governor Bryan expressed confidence that the Virgin Islands could weather all the challenges and changes. “Tourism is on fire. St. Croix went from 60,000 to 250,000 cruise tourists. We’re upping our airline seats and our occupancy rates, which is one of the highest daily occupancy rates in the Caribbean. We mainly cater to the upper-middle class, semi-luxury market segment, which isn’t as affected by financial downturns.”
The Governor wound up the discussion with a word about tariffs, stating that the Territory has an unincorporated status, which exempts it from federal tariffs and duties that apply to goods entering the U.S. mainland. This makes it advantageous for businesses that want to ship products to the USVI, add value, and then export them stateside without paying tariffs.
“With these tariffs coming out of China, we can bring product through the Dominican Republic, through Trinidad, through Barbados, from China, and bring it directly from China into St. Croix, into St. Thomas – tariff-free. We will then be able to sell those products at a considerably lower rate than we have before. Electronics direct from China would be 145% cheaper than in the States,” he explained the possibilities currently being considered if the Trade War continued on its present course.
While less bullish, Dr. Wenner closed the discussion with a warning: “Cumulative impacts—from immigration restrictions to social spending cuts—will increase stress on our most vulnerable populations. The USVI must prepare now, before these policies fully take hold.”
As the meeting came to a close, it was clear that the Trump 2.0 era will test the USVI’s resilience. But in the words of Mr. JohnHope, the Territory still holds the tools to shape its future if it’s willing to flip the script, and rise – just like a johnnycake.
Mr JohnHope’s presentation is available below.
Dr. Wenner’s presentation is available below.
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