Havana, Cuba – President Donald Trump’s worldwide political strategy seems nothing less than formulaic. He begins by tying a U.S. Navy barricaded-knot around a despot-run country, one that he feels threatens U.S. security; and then proceeds, in various ways, to threaten or choke the economic life out of them. In doing so, he somehow succeeds in conquering every tyrant and dictator who dares to get in his way.
One of his current targets is Cuba. The US’s 64-year embargo on Cuba is about to seem like a mere annoyance in comparison to what Trump has in store for the Caribbean island and its 11 million residents. To start with, the Trump Administration has cut off the estimated 27,000 to 35,000 barrel per day deliveries of cheap Venezuelan oil to the island, and is threatening tariffs on countries that may think about trying to fill the void.
The end of Cuba’s oil lifeline couldn’t come at a worse time, since the communist-run country is already suffering its worst economic crisis since the 1959 revolution which replaced President Fulgencio Batista with grassroots revolutionary Fidel Castro. Rolling electrical blackouts, declining hard currency, severe food and fuel shortages have become a daily way of life.
Trump has stated that he has offered a deal, an olive-branch, to the Cuban government, headed by President Miguel Diaz-Canel, and 94-year old Raoul Castro, Fidel’s brother, and his son Alejandro Castro. Apparently, the two governments are involved in high-level discussions. But this seemingly hollow diplomatic tactic sounds very familiar to the one that led to the swift downfall of the Maduro government in Venezuela.
Sources close to the negotiations claim the Communist Cuban regime faces an impossible choice: concede to White House demands that will certainly threaten its existing power structure, or roll the dice and hope Trump is bluffing, and that he will allow them to continue in their brutal and despotic form of rulership that has exerted extreme repression on a people who have suffered through decades of inhumane and non-democratic tactics.
Since there is no foreseeable economic gain by toppling the Cuban regime, as there was in oil-rich Venezuela, the victory, when it inevitably comes, will be largely driven by a difference in ideologies. Simply put, Trump and his Secretary of State Marco Rubio, find it to be a personal affront to have a Communist country sitting ninety miles off its borders on the coast of Florida.
But unlike Venezuela’s chaotic and cocaine-cartel-corrupted frequent changes in government, Cuba has had sixty-plus years of uninterrupted rule under the ghost of Fidel Castro, who initially promised a Democratic government, but soon embraced the Communist doctrine of Marx-Lenin. Although it appears to some to be a fanciful doctrine, and possibly was ideal in its original conception, it continues to prove to be repulsive and maligned in its implementation in almost every instance around the world. Fidel’s brother, Raul who apparently still holds the reins of power, continues to allow this Communist doctrine to dominate the Cuban government.
Further complicating the matter of complete surrender to the American way of life, public officials and the Revolutionary Armed Forces (FAR) of Cuba have been indoctrinated into the myth of Fidel’s revolution and for the most part, they seem to fear and reject change. For good cause, the FAR’s ownership, by force and sheer dominance, of key areas of the economy, including tourism and financial services integrated under large holding companies, helps ensure their loyalty and their steadfast opposition to anyone coming in to change their lucrative position in Cuban society.
And still, the Castro legacy hangs over the young leader Diaz-Canel like an albatross. While he still provides fiery Yanqui rhetoric, the reality of empty state-run food store shelves and no gas in the tank clearly spells signs that the people of Cuba are on the verge of having had enough of their survival-only lifestyle.
Along with multitudes of empty promises coughed up by the tight-grip of totalitarian control and at times the brutal repressive tactics of the Communist regime, it is a fact that many believe life was much better under Batista and the Lansky-Trafficante led American Mob, who provided a freer society and well-paying jobs while they had their corrupt grip on all the hotels, nightclubs and casinos on the island, turning Havana into a major narcotics trafficking hub before the 1959 revolution.
Sadly, there is no democratic leadership or strong opposition waiting in the wings in Cuba as there was in Venezuela. Cuba’s small independent political and civil society remains divided and isolated, afraid to show its face due to violent reprisals. The fact is, many of those who opposed the Castro regime have left. Between 2 to 3 million Cubans have escaped the brutality and economic failure by fleeing to the U.S., Spain and countries in Latin America. Such an exodus has served as an aide to the current regime, removing the most disgruntled citizens from the political and civic spectrum of the island.
The exodus has also created a large and highly motivated political force in the U.S. The Cuban-American community, centered around South Florida, has waited for decades to see the collapse of the former Fidel Castro regime. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is one of those who whole- heartedly embrace that point of view.
Although Trump was able to buck Congressional oversight in his Venezuela overthrow, there could be certain political complications with Cuba. Nevertheless, under the current political climate in Washington, Donald Trump is still King. And unless the Republicans are unseated from power in the November mid-term elections, there is no reason to believe he will not get his way with Cuba, as he did with Venezuela, as he is also apparently setting out to do in Iran.
When the dice turns against those in power in Cuba’s inner circle, as it most certainly will, who will stand tall against the might and economic power of a Trump-led United States? Who will risk being captured and thrown into an American prison.
The Trump blueprint is available for all to see:
Choke. Strangle. Conquer.
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